Natural gas markets have initially fallen during the trading session on Monday, but then turned around to show signs of life again. By doing so, it looks like we are simply hanging around in the same range that we have been in for a while and therefore I am not expecting much at this point in time. On signs of exhaustion are more than willing to start selling, but quite frankly this week is probably going to be more micro movements than anything else. I do not anticipate that this market is ready to make a bigger move so therefore I would stick to short-term charts if I felt it necessary to trade it all.
emperatures in the United States remain elevated, which of course is working against the value of natural gas to begin with. The 200 day EMA sits at the $4.12 level, and I think that will offer a bit of a ceiling in the market. As for a bigger move, that is probably going to be coming after New Year’s, if it comes at all. Based upon the descending triangle that we broke out of earlier, the measured move was for $3.00, and that is still my target over the longer term. Sure, there may be the occasional spike due to colder temperatures between now and spring, but the reality is that there has been an unreal amount of damage done to demand this winter that I just do not see being overcome anytime soon. Keep in mind that this is a US centric contract, so therefore what goes on in Europe does not matter.
